Good analysis of exactly this question from Stephen Bush in the New Statesman.https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2019/01/here-s-why-it-so-difficult-predict-how-brexit-will-shape-next-electionShort version: it's really, really hard to predict because many/most people are not single-issue voters so, while they may feel very strongly one way or the other about Brexit, their feelings on the economy, the NHS etc will also make a difference.Key quote:"...we know that in the event that Labour facilitates Brexit, then the party will pay an electoral price among Remainers and that if it blocks Brexit it will pay an electoral price among Leavers if (and this is the crucial part) the next election is about Brexit. What we don’t know is what the next election will be about."
James Elder ● 2862d