Forum Topic

Brexit isn't really about Brexit

For months now, I've been asking the question, what is it about the EU that is so oppressive, and what would Brexiteers do once we're "free" of it? And no real answer has come, which I put down largely to an inability or an unwillingness, to articulate a vision. But now, and apologies for taking so long to get there, I've finally come to the conclusion - and the following should really be in italics - that the urge for Brexit isn't really about Brexit, about the EU, at all!Why do I think this? Because, until as recently as 2015, the EU was well down the list of concerns of voters: it hardly even registered as an issue for most people. But this has changed since, and quite suddenly, the oppressiveness of the EUSSR has become such a big issue with so many. Of course, it wasn't a sudden concern in some, like Bill Cash and those who John Major, when he was PM, referred to as "bastards" and other long-term Eurosceptics like Jeremy Corbyn, but for the mass of people the EU simply wasn't something they worried about.But the change has come with the referendum, and suddenly people are expressing great concern about being "ruled" by Brussels, about the "oppression" of the EU, not one bit of which is objectively real, as Fintan O'Toole's book made absolutely clear. What the Brexit divide is really describing (and I referred to this the other day but then failed to join the dots) is the huge gulf between those who've done well in recent decades and those who haven't. Those who've done well are largely in London and the south east - where, counterintuitively, the mass of public infrastructure investment has been happening: we get Crossrail 1 and 2, HS2 costing many billions, whilst the government can't even manage to electrify the cross-Pennine rail link - and the greedy chief executives and fake non-doms exploit the system for all it's worth. On the other hand, there are the 'left behind' who, when the big industries like mining and steel production, to say nothing of the manufacturing industries, have been destroyed, have been left with rotten jobs with no prospects in the service industry and call centres and zero hours contracts. No wonder they are angry, and rightly so, but this anger has been subtly (and not so subtly) deflected onto Brussels, as if it were responsible and not our very own government and its austerity racket. We're all in this together? Ask someone with disabilities who is wrestling with the "reformed" benefits system if they believe that! And this is why, whether Brexit happens or not, the conflict will remain because the base problem will be unsolved. And in this wider context, whether we leave the EU or not will not solve our problems as a country, although leaving will make things worse. What we need is wholesale reform, but with our hopeless parliamentary system I am not at all optimistic that it will happen. A very bleak prospect indeed.

Richard Carter ● 2857d7 Comments

See what David Lammy states in his speech which I've just posted on another thread, Richard. The problems Brits face are of our own making.

Lucille Grant ● 2857d

Yes, I was writing my post at the same time as you were writing yours, which do indeed cover the same ground essentially.

Richard Carter ● 2857d

Richard, I don't disagree with you.  I only think that its time to regroup and think about the UK's future.  Parliament needs to stop posturing and think about the countries they represent.  What's wrong with buying British?  What's wrong with being proud of our achievements?  And I promised you, I'm not a nationalist.

Bunny Payne ● 2857d

Nothing wrong with buying British - except that we don't produce anything in any significant quantities any more, except means of dodging tax and laundering dirty money. Not much to be proud of there!

Richard Carter ● 2857d

Britain does still have pharmaceutical, motor and aerospace manufacturing. Of course this is carried out by global companies often only producing part of the product. Financial services is an important part of the UK exports but it looks like a significant part of that is dispersing to Dublin, Frankfurt, etc because of Brexit. But nothing wrong with buying British if one can find it - organic fruit and veg?

Michael Ixer ● 2857d

Agreed that we do produce some things, but since, as you note, they are carried out by global companies, the profits disappear abroad. There's very little production apart from by small companies like Brompton and Moulton, and it doesn't add up to all that much: the days when shipbuilding, for example, was a major industry, with Britain producing a huge proportion of the world's shipping, have long gone. And service industries are hardly a sufficient substitute.

Richard Carter ● 2856d

The largest companies in the FTSE100 include oil & gas (BP and Shell), financials (HSBC, Lloyds etc), consumer goods (Unilever), mining (mostly ex South African and Australian stocks), pharma (Glazo, AstraZeneca), tobacco (BAT), telecoms (Vodafone), insurance (Prudential), then, further down the list, aerospace & defence (BAE and Rolls).  Other manufacturing is even further down the list and nearly all these companies make the bulk of their revenues overseas. The profits are of course repatriated and help our balance of payments, but many of them have significant foreign shareholdings so the dividends flow back overseas. A huge chunk of our economy is now in the services sector and there was nothing in the now deceased withdrawal deal or putative free trade deal with the EU to protect those parts of the economy. Because being in the EU means we have effectively had a home market of 500 million people rather than just the 60 million in the UK and because a lot of the massive inflows of foreign direct investment has been predicated on using the UK as a politically and financially stable base for accessing the EU Single Market we have done relatively well in moving to a post industrial economy. In my view leaving the EU, its single market and its customs union can only harm the wider economy now and in the future. While it is clear big chunks of the country have seen all too little benefit of this the fault lies, as Richard suggests, in Westminster rather than Brussels. Even though the Japanese car plants have been located in such areas as Swindon, Derby and Sunderland.  Part of the problem we now face is the complete failure of our politicians to articulate this. Osborne had a go with his Northern Powerhouse concept but it never made any difference on the ground. Brexit will solve nothing but it will cause these inequalities to get worse. In fact it already has thanks to the uncertainties we now see before us. Lots of problems, few solutions and a complete lack of political leadership. None of this bodes well for any of us.

Jonathan Callaway ● 2856d