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Can't see a scenario in which Theresa May steps down for the simple reason that whoever is in charge of the Conservative party when a decision is finally made on EU membership will no longer have a political career. This is because the views of the two wings of the party are irreconcilable and any resolution must inevitable alienate one of them or both. Theresa May is therefore acting as a lightening rod for the party and the last thing they want is them being played out in a bitter leadership contest that will divide the party. She has to stay in place for the time-being.As for her ultimate successor the parliamentary party is predominantly remain (with a large number of MPs claiming publicly to be leavers due to a fear of their constituency party) and the party at the local level is overwhelming leave-voting at the more hard-line end of the spectrum. The system for selecting a leader is much more sensible than that of Labour and precludes a candidate that a reasonable number of MPs aren't prepared to back so that rules out Johnson, Rees-Mogg and Davis.The problem the parliamentary party has is that the membership will inevitably choose the more Brexit inclined candidate so they have to try and ensure no headbanger inadvertently gets on the ballot because the sensible wing of the party concentrates its support on one candidate. The voting is likely to be very tactical but my guess would be a Hunt vs Javid final with them both competing to be the most Brexity even though, one way or another, it will be yesterday's news by that point.It brings us Sue back to the unanswered question of the previous thread. What kind of Brexit would you want the leader of the Conservative party to support?

David Parker ● 2782d

Never thought I would say this, but thank you Ms Hammond for reminding me - of the dire future this country has with your depressing list of potential Conservative leaders.'Who dares wins Davis' - The man who led our negotiations with Brussels (when he bothered to attend) but then after two years resigned as he could not get his own way. "He used to be in the (Tooting) TA version of the SAS which meant that he learned how to strangle people with piano wire, but only at weekends" - Simon Hoggart.'Bonking Boris' - who joined Davis as Foreign Secretary to win over foreign Governments in these negotiations (when he was not chasing new totty and divorcing his wife) and who also resigned on failing to achieve anything at all.US President Theodore Roosevelt on diplomacy - “Speak softly and carry a big stick". Boris - shout a lot and keep your hands on a ha'penny.Raab ('who he? '- ed) - our final Brexit negotiator who stayed in the job for a fortnight until he got confused, it got too difficult and so quit to further his leadership plans.Self advancement before country - nice. All of these likely to appeal to the Conservative constituencies.But not Javid.Check out the name and the reaction to another bus driver's son of similar ethnic and religious background, from right wingers and other Conservatives, on this site as well as the wider media, when he stood for political office."Not really one of us is he".And let us not forget other Conservative heavyweight candidates - 'greasy Gove' who led the (hard) Leave campaign but then suddenly had a change of heart (oh yeah) and managed to weasel his way back into May's Cabinet by offering her his whole hearted support.Then patronising, two-faced Rees-Mogg, Hunt, Leadsom !, Truss !!, McVey !!! - the list of political titans, who you would not necessarily think could run a whelk stall let alone a Government, goes on and on. The majority of the Conservative MPs have a major problem.They are realistic and sensible, and  know they need to find a 'One Nation' middle of the road candidate who would appeal, and this is key, to the nation as a whole on a whole range of issues, and not just to the Brexit obsessives and reactionaries that seem to be the majority of Conservative members.A leader that would seem at home with and reflective of a socially liberal, multi-cultural and economically sympathetic (to those less fortunate) 'youngish' electorate, no longer obsessed by 'the war' and 'the Empire/Commonwealth' but worried about a very challenging future.And having an engaging and not repelling personality, and coming across as halfway human, competent, articulate and intelligent.Cameron was such but of course he chickened out over the EU and then, as we all did, paid the price.To be honest I can't think of anyone who fits that bill, just as I can't in the Labour Party.Who is the new Blair ?Apart from the damage any of these potential leaders, all so compromised by Brexit, is likely to cause the country, my only consolation is that it will be fun watching the cat fight on Newsnight !

John Hawkes ● 2781d

It is probably worth a quick reminder how the contest would work. Firstly MPs whittle down the candidates to two and then there is a vote of membership.Johnson is being ranked as favourite purely on the basis of name recognition with the general public. He is highly unlikely to get enough votes from MPs because even among those who agree with his views he is regarded as an unprincipled lightweight opportunist unfit for high office.The ERG hard Brexit wing of the party will probably coalesce around a candidate like Dominic Raab who, unlike the alternatives, has the benefit of looking and sounding sane even though when you listen to what he actually says you will realise that he isn't.The majority of Tory MPs will recognise two things - if Raab is one of the final two he would win the membership vote and the party would split irrevocably if he became leader. Therefore they will try and insure two candidates who have a hope of uniting the party are selected. This will be a fiendishly difficult task which could be undermined by some MPs calculating that Raab would win and looking to jump on that bandwagon quickly to get ministerial preferment (I'm looking at you Gove!).The process is so fraught with danger and so liable to lead to disaster for the Conservatives that you can probably rule it out as an option for now. I am still convinced that, if you consider this purely from the point of what is in the Conservative party's interest, this whole thing will end with Theresa May announcing a second referendum this month.

David Parker ● 2780d

We are indeed clutching at straws Mr MacLeod, so who would you suggest?Jeremy Hunt perhaps, who brought a humanitarian crisis to the NHS, was accused of expense fiddling (like Gove) and alleged money-laundering activities?  Then there's G4S, Levinson, and selling weapons to the Saudis.  As for diplomatic gaffes, few come close to his questioning of a FGM campaigner as to whether "she still had orgasms?"  He does however speak Japanese but failed in his private mission to sell marmalade to Japan.  Greening squandered £40m on failed tendering for the West Coast Rail Link, and DfID gave millions to various space programmes, and office refurbishments. I am neither delusional nor responsible for this mess, as I do not vote in what Mandelson described as the "Post Democratic Age" but did vote to leave a European Union which Hunt alluded to as the EUSSR, which like a prison, does not allow "members" to leave.  Having lived outside Europe for 20 years, I do know how other trade blocs work, like ASEAN and the Gulf Co-operation Council, under WTO rules, and frankly anything is better than being tied to an overly complex failing political structure, where every decision takes years, whilst the Silk Road marches swiftly on.Jeremy Corbyn is despised by the DUP, and would be the worst disaster for this country. in every sense.  A mere hint of his name as PM will only speed up the brain-drain already under way, and the markets tumbling.How long did it take for us leave EFTA under Ted Heath?  This was our biggest mistake, as the original Common Market morphed from 6 to 28.  What is the point of having a seat at the table, when every mouthful has to be ratified by 27 other diners?  Small trade blocs work, large political unions don't.And for the record, I think those who constantly refer to "Nazis" on this forum, should consider those, like my mother, who knows what that word really means.  She can tell you what six years of occupation, starvation, and imminent death, with a brother in a labour camp was really like.  These kind of remarks not only serve to make the poster look utterly delusional but the forum itself.

Chantal Blake-Milton ● 2780d

Of course antisemitism is not the Labour manifesto David -  but it's alive and well in the Labour Party. The Leader of the Opposition Party in the UK won't do anything to prevent anti semitism within the ranks. A few recent articles: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47203397https://www.ft.com/content/aa7c3b76-2e4f-11e9-8744-e7016697f225https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/antisemitism-labour-luciana-berger-jewish-jeremy-corbyn-a8769946.htmlOn the Far Right anti semitism is  generally seen as a given bearing in mind 20th century events. Anti semitic attacks in France grow year on year as indeed they do in the UK, as well as anti Islam ones. What binds these populist political groups is their policy of anti immigration. 'name these people'Some Right Wing Populist political parties whose aims resemble those of the Nazis:Austria - the Freedom Party is the junior  partner in a governing coalitionItaly - The Northern League 'Their joint programme for government includes plans for mass deportations for undocumented migrants, in line with The League's strong anti-immigration stance.'Germany - the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD)'whose leaders have been  accused of downplaying Nazi atrocities.' Nigel Farage supports them - https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/nigel-farage-germany-right-wing-anti-immigrant-afd-berlin-hitler-finance-minister-granddaughter-a7937126.htmlFrance - Marine Le Pen (Front National) missed winning the Presidential Election against Centrist Macron because the majority of French people didn't vote for her. Hitler's National Socialist (aka Nazi) programme of 1920 (many years before he became German Chancellor) makes for interesting reading. Sorry it's only Wiki but I have other things to do with my time than provide 20th century history on the forum. Without the knowledge of history there is a risk we  carry on making the same mistakes.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Socialist_Program.I apologise if any of this seems muddled but I've said enough on the subject - in my mind nationalism (aka Nazism) is dangerous and we've seen what it can lead to less than a  century ago.  It needs to be halted in its tracks. 'Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends than that good men should look on and do nothing.' John Stuart Mill 1867.

Lucille Grant ● 2780d

Thank you for your reply. You write:-"Of course antisemitism is not the Labour manifesto David -  but it's alive and well in the Labour Party."From the Independent article to which you link:-"This has provided cover for the few genuine antisemites within the party but has also cloaked in ambiguity some of the statements made by those who, without any obvious antisemitic motives, can sound that way in their passionate advocacy of the Palestinian cause." Note:-"the FEW genuine antisemites within the party".You write:- "The Leader of the Opposition Party in the UK won't do anything to prevent anti semitism within the ranks."The BBC article to which you link says:-"The data published revealed:673 complaints of anti-Semitism by Labour Party members were received - a Labour spokesman said this represented about 0.1% of the membership96 members were immediately suspended after complaints were made and a further 211 were told they would be investigated146 members received a first warning, and 220 cases did not have sufficient evidence of a breach of party rules for an investigationOf the 307 who were suspended or notified of an investigation, 44 members left the partyAnother 96 were referred to the party's anti-Semitism Disputes PanelOf the 96, 16 members were issued with a formal warning from the National Executive Committee, six members' cases were referred for further investigation, 25 members were issued with reminder of conduct (a first written warning), and seven members' cases were closed as the full evidence suggested no further action should be takenThe panel decided to refer the other 42 members to Labour's National Constitutional Committee (NCC), with five members leaving before their cases were reviewedOf the 37 cases referred to the NCC, 12 members were expelled and six received sanctions, while the rest await their outcomeThe other members who were suspended or notified of an investigation are either still under investigation or are cases where the investigation revealed evidence that meant the case could not be pursued furtherThe party received a further 433 complaints which were not about Labour party members."And that is doing nothing, is it?I could not read the FT article, as it was behind a paywall, I believe.You write:-"Anti semitic attacks in France grow year on year as indeed they do in the UK, as well as anti Islam ones."In the UK, anti-semitic attacks doubled in 2014. Corbyn did not become leader of Labour until 2015, did he?The Community Trust report shows a 16% rise in anti-semitic hate incidents in 2018. "The most common form of reported incident "involved verbal abuse randomly directed at visibly Jewish people in public," the charity said. However, there was a 17% decrease in the number of violent anti-Semitic assaults, from 149 in 2017 to 123 in 2018, the report said.Close to a quarter of the total number of incidents recorded by CST last year involved social media, it added." (BBC)"a 17% DECREASE in the number of violent anti-Semitic assaults". So the increase is online abuse. As Mark Zuckerberg cannot completely control Facebook, it is a bit much to expect Corbyn to control social media. Nor is Labour responsible for or connected to the Right-Wing parties which you list.

David Ainsworth ● 2780d

Yes I am Mr MacLeod, and off the top of my head, recall that like all socialists, Wilson's  only method of generating income was to tax the successful hard-worker, resulting in the infamous "Brain Drain" from which we have never recovered.  Things got so bad that he had to bring in currency limits of £50 for Brits travelling abroad.  I remember on a cross-channel trip to see relatives in Brussels, my well-dressed Belgian mother being manhandled by two chippy customs officers to see if she had cash in her clothing.  The upshot of this Soviet-style ruling, was that foreign companies saw no point in British investment if the profits could not be brought out, causing huge balance of trade deficits and a tanking economy.Wilson, lacking charisma, wooed the Beatles, on whose success he hoped to piggyback, giving them MBEs.  Lennon gave his back, and George Harrison wrote "Taxman".  Ever the opportunist, he then wooed footballers hoping to associate a Labour Government with our World Cup victory, but was too dim to realise that the very millionaires he was chasing fell into the draconian tax bracket he had created, most of whom headed off to LA or Switzerland.My father, a doctor, got so fed up with drug-addled pop stars and alcoholic footballers earning more in a week than he could in five years, decided, like so many highly skilled scientists to take the rigorous entry exams to practice medicine in the States.  He passed with flying colours, and it was only an escalation of the Vietnam War, where most new medics were being sent field hospitals outside Ho Chi Minh, that decided him against putting his family through such disruption.  It was never about the money, just the flagrant lack of respect for science and engineering, which continues to this day.Wilson did stand up against LBJ and refused to send British troops to Vietnam, which in turn angered the Military Industrial Complex, (the real rulers of the World) to the point that he was accused of being a Russian mole, with threats on his life.  I remember Heathrow being shut down in ?1974 , where a dress rehearsal for the takeover of Mountbatten was disguised as an IRA terrorist exercise.Despite a glittering career at Oxford, Wilson failed to understand what the E in PPE stood for.  As the bodies piled up in the streets, I remember Callaghan took over this distastrous regime and was lambasted for holidaying in the Caribbean whilst the nation suffered.Those who were right about Wilson are right about the far more dangerous Corbyn, who gained 2 E-grade A-levels and dropped out of college due to arguing with his lecturers, and took what was in effect an extended Gap Year round various tottering communist states.  As result of his travels, he described Marx as a great economist.  HIs three older brothers all did well academically, and he still bears the scars of failing to be the yearned-for daughter his mother really wanted.  Several failed relationships with women, including Diane Abbott, demonstrate a man who cannot compromise, and has no staying power.  He has no problem however, with nepotism, having secured a job for his second son in John McDonnell's office, and an important role for his ex-squeeze. McDonnell is to Corbyn what Olly Robbins is to May.  A dangerous mentor, pulling the strings.  Corbyn is merely the puppet, but "I am a Marxist" McDonnell will tax us till the pips squeak.  History is repeating itself, and the smart people have already got out.A man who hates Jews, yet defines himself as a Marxist -oh the irony -, praises the Venezuelan regime, and consorts with terrorists does indeed, make Wilson look like the Dalai Lama and/or economic visionary he never was.  Different people, same ideology - Socialism always leaves the country drained in every sense, and May has finally been outed for the left-winger she really is, happy to bring the nation to its knees, with a full fridge of insulin and a Policeman at her door.

Chantal Blake-Milton ● 2778d

"What we are seeing more of now are political groups or Parties that seem to have a hatred of both Jews and Muslims, simply because they are not white 'British' and Brexit has given them the opportunity to expand this hatred to EU citizens as well."What a load of bollox Mr Hawkes. You appear to see racism everywhere which is very sad.---------------------------------------------------------Yet another charmless reply Ms Hammond.Below is not overwhelming evidence of racism totally underpinning the two political parties below, but sufficiently indicative to raise an eyebrow if not suspicion.1) UKIP - a) Marcus Meecham is a prominent member.He was found guilty of breaching the Communications Act for posting on Youtube a clip where amongst other things he gets his dog to respond when asked if it "wanted to gas the Jews".'Not just humour - UKIP humour' !'b) Tommy Robinson (ex-EDL and BNP) born Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, aka Andrew McMaster, Paul Harris, Wayne King, a man with  criminal records for assault, mortgage fraud and contempt of court and a undisguised reputation for attacking Islam and Muslims, was appointed Special Political Advisor (on Race Relations) to Gerard Batten the UKIP leader.2) The Brexit Party - a) founded by Katherine Blaiklock with Nigel Farage's support, but who then quickly resigned over since-deleted anti-Islam messages on Twitter, including re-tweeting messages by far-right figures including Tommy Robinson.b) Michael McGough the Treasurer resigned after it was revealed that he had made a long series of anti-semitic, anti-Islam and homophobic comments. However he is still the 'owner' of the Brexit Party's website.To its credit one has to say that the Brexit Party or whatever is left of its leadership other than Nigel Farage said it found his comments unacceptable.But none the less my comment that post-Brexit parties are attractive to many racists I think has some credence.

John Hawkes ● 2778d

Ms Blake-MiltonI think you quote this 98% figure rather disingenuously.You claim that it will be to our advantage - "leaving the Customs Union to trade under WTO umbrella with 160 other countries covering 98% of World Trade. 98% of future growth lies outside Europe and that's where our future lies, not tied to a recessive Eurozone".I took this to mean that there were 160 countries in the WTO, outside Europe, covering 98% of world trade, that we were currently excluded from trading with and were forced only to trade with and through the EU making up 2% of world trade.That prompted me to ask for your information source.But in your reply you say - "The EU is already a member (of the WTO ?), so will presumably be included in this figure (of 98% ?)".So I was then really confused because as part of the EU, are we thus not already trading with many of the 160 and what stops us even today from doing more unilaterally ?And surely our total trade even via the EU is far greater than 2%.So I googled a bit more and found on the EU website ('fake news' I hear you cry !) the following - let's call them claims as I think you are a little Trumpish on 'facts'. " - The EU is the largest economy in the world. Although growth is projected to be slow, the EU remains the largest economy in the world with a GDP per head of €25 000 for its 500 million consumers.- The EU is the world's largest trading block. The EU is the world’s largest trader of manufactured goods and services.- The EU ranks first in both inbound and outbound international investments- The EU is the top trading partner for 80 countries. By comparison the US is the top trading partner for a little over 20 countries.- The EU is the most open to developing countries. Fuels excluded, the EU imports more from developing countries than the USA, Canada, Japan and China put together.- The EU benefits from being one of the most open economies in the world and remains committed to free trade.- The average applied tariff for goods imported into the EU is very low. More than 70% of imports enter the EU at zero or reduced tariffs.- The EU’s services markets are highly open and we have arguably the most open investment regime in the world.- The EU has not reacted to the crisis by closing markets. However some the EU’s trading partners (the US ?)have not been so restrained as the EU has highlighted in the Trade and Investment Barriers Report.- In fact the EU has retained its capacity to conclude and implement trade agreements. The recent Free Trade Agreements with South Korea and with Singapore are examples of this and the EU has an ambitious agenda of trade agreements in the pipeline".I then found on fullfact.org that  - "Of 135 non-EU members of the World Trade Organisation, 58 currently trade with the EU under negotiated trade terms. The rest (77) trade under WTO terms".Countries the EU (and hence the UK) have a trade agreement with include Israel, Japan, Mexico, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, Canada and Switzerland.Negotiations are in place with Australia, China, India, Indonesia, New Zealand and the Philippines amongst others.Ms Blake-Milton, do you think we, a major economy certainly but not with the trading muscle of a major world trading bloc, could renegotiate these arrangements and get better deals than the massive EU ?What disadvantage do you see in the terms of trade we have with say Japan via an EU agreement that would be alleviated if we renegotiated it on our own ?I know that Liam Fox has started negotiating new and existing trade deals.He has reached successful conclusions, in his terms, with    Caribbean countriesPacific Islands Israel Palestinian Authority Switzerland The Faroe Islands Eastern and Southern AfricaChile But even these are not quite what they seem, for apparently even though we would be able to sell widgets to Switzerland, Switzerland might not actually buy them for if the final product including the widget is destined for the EU, their 'country of origin' rules might prevent this.Harsh but true. Obviously the big trade agreement we need to arrange post Brexit is that with the EU - our biggest trading partner.But hang on.We have a perfectly good one already !But going back to the origin of this thread - 'who for Conservative leader thence PM thence chief post-Brexit negotiator with the EU'.Obvious choice is BORIS - the man that called out the infamous EU edict that stopped plucky little UK eating bent bananas and thus started and then led the Brexit campaign.So let him finish it !

John Hawkes ● 2778d

"Boris for his charisma and star quality which will appeal to the younger voters and the London voters"Ms Hammond,Are you sure ?Charisma means 'compelling attractiveness or charm that can inspire devotion in others'.This might apply to the people who will probably elect him leader and thence PM (on average white and aged 53 - PutneySW15 Forum posters !)(BTW where's my vote in that later elevation ? Democracy ? About as democratic as your part in the election of Juncker as President of the European Commission !).But I doubt much devotion is inspired in the majority of the people in this country.Apart from his late conversion and now strict adherence to a 'no deal' Brexit, I have serious doubts that many ordinary people struggling on low incomes often in deprived areas of the country really take to the floppy haired schtick of a privileged Old Etonian, Islington living ('For sale - Bojo's house a snip at £2.5 million), mainstream media financed (salary £250K a year for writing 50ish articles), member of the political elite, public money waster (Garden Bridge cost taxpayers £42M -which could have fixed the one at Hammersmith),liar, promiscuous adulterer, father of at least one illegitimate child and now the 'boyf' of a 31 year old Conservative PR 'consultant', who pretentiously spouts Latin at them when he is not insulting those with a 'non-white' skin or whose religion is Islam.How much does this actually appeal to the many young who, ever since Johnson first entered the political spotlight, have found themselves (unless they are a rich , privileged Conservative PR 'consultant') now struggling with insecure jobs, low wages (with no respite expected their from an erstwhile PM who thinks and says "f*ck business"), enormous housing challenges and more to the point have an attitude to leaving the EU which is diametrically opposed to his ?And all the above is even more in spades, whatever their age, if they live in London where let's face it, white 53 year olds are not in the overwhelming majority.The supposed empathy between London and Johnson lives in the memory of a Britain not yet hit by a financial crisis, basking briefly in the coming together of people for the 2012 Olympics, before the country was split over Brexit  and when Johnson was probably a Remainer. Johnson will win this leadership election because he will base his campaign on Brexit Party policy in order to appeal to people, if I may be so presumptuous, with views like yours.Will this see him win a General Election - I doubt it.

John Hawkes ● 2723d