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So after tonight's votes May's deal seems to be the most popular (if I'm reading this numbers correctly) . Where to now? No deal? So much for parliament taking control

Andy Pike ● 2781d4 Comments

It all depends on how you look at the numbers, as statistics can show whatever you want.  The key is in the abstentions.  If the MPs are allowed another indicative vote (and after all, the PM has had the best part of 3 years, and they've only had a few weeks), and perhaps forced to vote For or Against, things would be clearer.  As it is, this whole thing goes to show that implementing 'the will of the people' based on a tiny majority on a non-legally binding referendum that was filled with lies was never going to be a good idea.  Stop Brexit.(apologies for appalling formatting, but you get the gist)                    For    Against Abstained    Lost byMay’s Deal      286    344    19            58Peoples Vote    280    292    77            12Customs Union  273    276    100            3Common Market  261    282    106            21Cherry amend.  191    292    166            101

Clare Noeken ● 2780d

It looks more and more likely that WTO will be the outcome. Brexit ~ Bring it on! 👍🏻

Sue Hammond ● 2780d

There is no deal better than the one we have today, as part of the worlds largest trading bloc, for only 0.7% of our taxes.'No deal' and WTO are far inferior to what we have now, for the very many reasons given on other threads.  Both would be illegal under the Good Friday Agreement, which wouldn't exactly be a great start for 'Global Britain'.  Both would bring food and medicine shortages (anyone tried getting a prescription recently and their first point of call not having what you need?  I have).  Neither were given as the end state during the referendum campaign (as there was no plan, only a concept).Nobody voted for No Deal or WTO.  Nobody gave informed consent, other than those who voted to Remain, as we know what that actually looks like.  What a farce.  Make it all go away.  Stop Brexit.

Clare Noeken ● 2780d

So is are you finally telling us Sue what your preferred option for Brexit is?WTO isn't an alternative to the EU. We are already members and already operate under its rules. It basically serves as providing a basis on which international trade is done and then countries build mutually favourable trading arrangements within the WTO framework. No country currently trades on 'WTO basis' - they all have trade agreements with other countries. The problem we have is that most of our trade agreements currently are done through the EU and they would no longer apply were we to leave. Alternative deals can take years to put in place and we simply don't have the capacity to do this.What happens if we leave on WTO terms therefore is that a wide cross section of our industrial base will become subject to a range of tariffs that didn't previously apply. You need to remember that a substantial part of our industrial base is owned by multi-national companies and they will have several production facilities. Overnight there will be a transfer of production to factories exempt from tariffs in other countries mainly elsewhere in the single market. Some of the tariffs under WTO rules are in single figures but you need to bear in mind that profit margins for lots of industries are also very tight. So if your margin is 3% and you are subject to a 5% tariff, all other things being equal, you start losing money.Not all tariffs are low under WTO. For some agricultural products for instance they are over 20%. This would be enough to drive our beef exports for instance close to zero.There will also be import tariffs to consider - particularly on foodstuffs. We could waive them but our agriculture sector would be in crisis and farmers would demain they were maintained to protect what survived. Even discounting the impact of the inevitable currency slump food prices would be up at least 10% on top of big rises for lots of other daily items such as clothes.This is not project fear. Every major economic institute,  every City institution, every leading economist, the CBI, the main trade unions, the civil service agree this is what will happen. Even Michael Gove who previously dismissed the view of experts now admits this is the outcome of No Deal. Hundreds of thousands of jobs would be lost. Anyone who tells you that 'WTO Rules' is a viable option is lying to you. The only reason that it is being discussed as a possibility is that the Government hope a final concession can be squeezed out of the EU if this is taken to the brink. The EU already knows that there is a massive majority against no deal in the Commons and the government won't consider it an option. Theresa May hopes that be leaving things to the last minute more MPs will vote for her deal due to fear of no deal but it appears her bluff has been called.The assumption on world financial markets today remains that no deal will not happen. If that were to change there would be a very sharp fall in the currency way beyond the weakness we have seen in recent years and probably a significant credit downgrade for the UK requiring a level of austerity far beyond what we have seen since the financial crisis.In advocating WTO rules you are confusing what is a negotiating stance for a policy. There is simply no way the government are going to let that happen. For reasons outlined in another thread I believe that they will shortly agree a long extension with the EU to allow a confirmatory referendum to be held on a Withdrawal Agreement.

David Parker ● 2780d