Forum Topic

Will Johnson get a Brexit deal?

If he doesn't,  then the only way to comply with the new law and stop a disastrous crash out from the EU may be to revoke A50? (As the UK can do that unilaterally 🙂)https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/08/france-threatens-to-veto-further-brexit-extension

Michael Ixer ● 2621d22 Comments

Monty Python and the French Veto:-French Soldier: "You don't frighten us, English pig dogs. Go and boil your bottoms, you sons of a silly person. I blow my nose at you, so-called "Arthur King," you and all your silly English K-nig-hts."

David Ainsworth ● 2621d

According to the Telegraph, Johnson's advisers (presumably the genius Cummings who got us into this mess in the first place with his wizard plan), they have "drawn up plans to “sabotage” any Brexit extension without breaking the law ... One plan under serious consideration [really!] would see the Prime Minister send an accompanying letter alongside the request to extend Article 50 setting out that the Government does not want any delay after Oct 31." (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/08/boris-johnson-draws-plan-legally-stop-brexit-extension-mps-vote/)This is the equivalent of a child making a promise with their fingers crossed behind their back. Genius? I don't think so.

Richard Carter ● 2620d

OTOH, the Times says Johnson is going to accept the defeat and go for the extension ( https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/boris-johnson-in-retreat-over-delay-to-brexit-h8xbc5cf2?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1567987441). But anyway, it seems it's not just the French that have lost patience with the UK: the consistently reliable Simon Kuper, writing in the FT at the weekend, says that the Europeans are finally and completely fed up with the Brexit soap opera and just want it and  us to go away. Definitely worth a read to get a non-UK perspective:https://www.ft.com/content/110207f2-cea2-11e9-b018-ca4456540ea6

Richard Carter ● 2620d

"the Europeans are finally and completely fed up with the Brexit soap opera and just want it and  us to go away."It is better to bore-bore than to war-war.

David Ainsworth ● 2620d

I also read the Kuper article. It summarises what I have read in the German press and it is all profoundly depressing. Just how Brexiteers think we will recover from this I don’t know. Blind optimism is all I hear from them. Not quite the Master Plan for the nation’s future. Even more unfortunately the new law requiring the PM to ask for an extension if parliament has not voted for a deal is likely to reinforce his “people vs Parliament” pitch at the forthcoming election. A lot of Leavers will fall for it too, despite the obvious irony that their case for leaving the EU rested on restoring sovereignty to parliament.

Jonathan Callaway ● 2620d

Please Google - "Brexit:  A Hard-but-Smart Strategy and its Consequences"Written by a collective of German Economists, suggesting that a hard "no-deal" -which is of course, a deal, would be beneficial to the UK, but not Germany, which is already going deeper into recession.We will recover very well, as any one importing and exporting to this country will already tell you, if we have the power to set our own tariffs.  British Airways strikes and fog in the Channel already impact incoming goods, so who exactly do you think will be at the border barricading incoming food and medical supplies after Brexit?

Chantal Blake-Milton ● 2620d

Did you read it in English Chantal? If so could you provide a link? I can only see it in German.thanks

Matt Palmer ● 2620d

Johnson’s intention is not to make a deal, despite saying  that he wants one.  Why? Because the people who back him will make enormous sums from a sudden no deal which will harm our economy. Not because of any “spiffing wheeze” negotiating tactic which he’s keeping secret.The Sunday Times:“Boris Johnson’s pro-Brexit backer Crispin Odey has made a £300m bet against British businesses and stands to make huge profits from the woes of the UK economy.The firm owned by the multimillionaire hedge fund tycoon, who made millions betting against the pound after the 2016 referendum, has taken out £299m in “short” positions on some of Britain’s biggest firms.His apparent lack of confidence in flagship British groups, including Royal Mail and the shopping centre owner Intu, implies that he expects their share prices to fall as the pound continues to tumble.According to fresh data obtained by IHS Markit and Short Tracker, Odey Asset Management has “short” positions on 16 UK listed firms — and has increased its “short” position on six of them since Theresa May announced her resignation in May. On the day Johnson was elected leader of the Tory party, Odey’s firm increased its “short” position in the high street lender Metro Bank. It currently has a £17.6m bet against the company.”Just one of many Conservative backers ...Nick

Nicholas Evans ● 2620d

Well, I hadn't read it until now but it is hardly offering a panacea.  If we minimise import tariffs we expose our industries, and especially agriculture, to oblivion from the flood of cheap imports (possibly not so cheap if the pound plummets of course, but ruinous anyway).  It also states that even the "hard-but-smart approach" they advocate will reduce but not eliminate the damage to the UK economy.  They admit that the opening of agricultural and food markets would hit UK farmers hard and the automobile industry, with its high exports to the EU, would have to accept significant losses. They also quote the renegade economist Patrick Minford, a worrying indicator to me.  They focus on minimising UK import tariffs without analysing the effect of the EU import tariffs we would inevitably face.When they start to argue that "Continental lovers of scotch and cheddar cheese" will pressurise the EU to reach a FTA with us as soon as possible I think they lose their sense of reality.I would rather we heeded the warnings of many UK industry leaders about a WTO or no-deal exit.Incidentally do you agree with their conclusion that we should revoke Article 50 to give us time to megotiate a FTA before leaving?  Nice idea but one already excluded by the EU approach to sequencing withdrawal negotiations.  No work on a FTA has been done by either side as a result.I seee the article has been picked up by the Telegraph, Breitbart and other right wing websites.  Enthusiasm by such types does not bode well!

Jonathan Callaway ● 2620d

These are only the ones we know about.  Don't recall the Leave campaign telling us this would be one of the benefits of leaving ...

Jonathan Callaway ● 2620d

Hi Matt, if you put into Google the exact words I have provided, you should be able to see the full document in English - have you tried the "translate" option?The Telegraph has a paywall, but here is a synopsis that is contained in the first three paragraphs."Embracing free trade would limit the damage by a "no deal" Brexit, give a bounty of cheaper imports to consumers and strengthen Britain's hand in EU negotiations, according to top German Economists.Slashing all import tariffs after Brexit would cut costs for households and businesses, giving the economy a boost, the Ifo Institute said in a new report, calling this model a "hard but smart" Brexit.At the same time, it would rebalance the power around the negotiating table, which is currently based on a "no deal" Brexit harming the UK because it would involve Britain imposing WTO taxes on its own consumers."We were of course, founding members of EFTA, but taken out of a free-trade association by Bilderberger Ted Heath.  The rest is history, however young voters cannot remember a time when we not locked into a European Superstate rather than a free trade bloc.  As even German Economists are telling us, we need to get back to being the FREE TRADING nation we once were.

Chantal Blake-Milton ● 2620d

Basic economics does not adhere to perceptions of right or left wing leaning.That said, I have never known a socialist government that didn't leave the country in a dire economic state.

Chantal Blake-Milton ● 2620d

so you're suggesting these hedge funds are in league with the pm? what a load of tosh...fyi anyone on this forum or eslewhere for that matter can short the ftse or individual stocks and vice versa. to suggest he is trying for no deal so his backers make money is as RC would say...unicorns etc etc. hedge funds are in the business of shorting stocks, they do it every day, if you manage £10bn or £20bn a £300m short is prudent considering the financial turmoil

Adam Tripp ● 2620d

The Conservatives are doing a fine job of  leaving the country in dire financial circumstances already. Austerity, anyone?

Lucille Grant ● 2620d

No doubt the totally false argument that the last Labour government left the country's finances in a mess through overspending will soon get trotted out again. So, just to make it perfectly clear, that is a blatant lie: the country's finances were indeed in a mess but because of the reckless practices of the bankers which resulted in the need to bail them out. And just to remind people, not one of these disgusting spivs has seen the inside of one of HM's prisons. Now that's a real scandal.

Richard Carter ● 2620d

Well said Richard and Lucille!

Ivonne Holliday ● 2620d

@Adam. Possibily depends what you mean by "in league". I suspect many members of the cabinet have hedge fund managers in their circle of friends and busi ness contacts, and donations from them to the Tory party aren't unknown ... and possibly some mutual back scratching? You're right, technically anyone could short the markets but it's a risky business and ordinary private investors are usually discouraged from doing it. Many brokers and investment managers don't allow clients to do it - I suspect their may now be FCA rules disallowing it unless clients are classified as " expert" but I'm not sure about that.

Michael Ixer ● 2620d

I'm a bit confused, if you slash import tariffs why would that strengthen our hand? We're basically saying 'export to us for free', so where is the incentive for other countries to give us access to their markets? We would have opened the door with nothing in return.

Matt Palmer ● 2620d

Adam, you may find this an interesting read: ‘85% of the UK based hedge fund companies that went short on the result of the EU referendum (between April and June 2016) were directly or indirectly connected to hedge funds who were part of the Vote Leave campaign. They collectively made hundreds of millions of pounds, Euros and dollars following the referendum result.’http://www.brexitshambles.com/300-hedge-fund-companies-were-represented-by-vote-leave-during-the-referendum-campaign-and-they-formed-the-biggest-demographic-of-their-membership/

Clare Noeken ● 2619d

and?as I said before hedge funds do this all day every day with investors money, where's the problem? If you or anyone else on this forum have suspicions (or even proof) that they broke the law, take it to the police of the FCA

Adam Tripp ● 2619d

Doesn't matter what deal how good or bad it won't get through the commons as ComradeCorbyn has today said they will block any deal to force a GE. Yep the one he could have forced last week and last night ! If that makes sense . the sight of comrades singing the red flag in the house thus morning is hopefully enough to put folk off voting for that rabble.

Andy Pike ● 2619d

I think both conservatives and labour should be kicked out of government, if only for one fixed term.  Both have been battling Brexit from a party political point of view and not considering the best interests of the country.Also, having a GE on Brexit only is not only ridiculous but unwise.  If it is going to be on Brexit only, then have a referendum.  I believe Article 50 should be revoked and Brexit should be taken back to the drawing board.  Brexit started very badly as they had no plan.  The result is the mess we have today.  Disgraceful!

Ivonne Holliday ● 2619d