Forum Topic

Yellowhammer for anyone interested

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/831199/20190802_Latest_Yellowhammer_Planning_assumptions_CDL.pdf
Yes its certainly better to be out of Jonny Foreigner's clutches.......

Peter Miles ● 2618d26 Comments

I wonder what was in para 15 (redacted)

Jonathan Callaway ● 2618d

15. Facing EU tariffs makes petrol exports to the EU uncompetitive. Industry had plans to mitigate the impact on refinery margins and profitability but UK Government policy to set petrol import tariffs at 0% inadvertently undermines these plans. This leads to significant financial losses and announcement of two refinery closures (and transition to import terminals) and direct job losses (about 2000). Resulting strike action at refineries would lead to disruptions to fuel availability for 1-2 weeks in the regions directly supplied by the refineries.

Sean Hodges ● 2618d

This was in the earlier leaked version, which is virtually the same as today's version. Presumably redacted because of the reference to the two refineries closing at a cost of 2000 welsh jobs

Sean Hodges ● 2618d

As the Sunday Times journalist points out (https://twitter.com/RosamundUrwin/status/1171872961944571905), the only difference between the new Yellowhammer document that the government has just published compared with the one she got hold of last month was the heading:The original version was the BASE SCENARIO;the new one says: HMG Reasonable Worst Case Planning Assumptions.Really big difference there...

Richard Carter ● 2618d

How many civil servants over three years did it take to produce that? It looks very superficial. I feel I could have deduced most of that by common sense and guess work rather than diligent, rigorous research and investigations? Or am I being unreasonable? 

Michael Ixer ● 2618d

Sean, thanks. I couldn’t find the leaked version to check if that had redacted sections. Terrifying.

Jonathan Callaway ● 2617d

Brexiteers wouldn't believe common sense and guess work Michael. The Government and the ERG are running the country into the ground for their own benefit. I imagine many of their right wing cohorts are betting on the £ at Britain's expense.

Lucille Grant ● 2617d

“15. Facing EU tariffs makes petrol exports to the EU uncompetitive. Industry had plans to mitigate the impact on refinery margins and profitability but UK Government policy to set petrol import tariffs at 0% inadvertently undermines these plans. This leads to significant financial losses and announcement of two refinery closures (and transition to import terminals) and direct job losses (about 2000). Resulting strike action at refineries would lead to disruptions to fuel availability for 1-2 weeks in the regions directly supplied by the refineries.”This points at why this issue’s such a mess – poor standards in government, the civil service and media. No plan to exit, no plan to stay and endless ‘he said, she said’ media speculation.The EU has a Market Access Database, a primary source we pay for and that any of us can access. The Market Access Database lists refined petroleum as zero tariff.As a result, the above scenario doesn’t make sense.We – the people of the UK and EU – deserved better. Or maybe we didn’t.

Fraser Pearce ● 2617d

Yes, they are Lucille.'Currently, £8,274,350,000 (£8.3 billion) of aggregate short positions has been taken out by hedge funds connected to the Prime Minister and his Vote Leave campaign, run by his advisor Dominic Cummings, on a ‘no deal’ Brexit.'https://bylinetimes.com/2019/09/11/brexit-disaster-capitalism-8-billion-bet-on-no-deal-crash-out-by-boris-johnsons-leave-backers/

Clare Noeken ● 2617d

I think you are being very reasonable indeed, Michael.I do not believe it took a sea of civil servants over three years to produce this.  I would suspect a handful would be too many and no serious consideration was given to the no-deal scenario because "it was going to be the easiest deal in history".It would not surprise me if this document was not produced within a working week if that, hence its superficial contents.The prospects are frightening. 

Ivonne Holliday ● 2617d

Peter, Jonathan, Sean, Richard, Michael, Lucille, Clare and Ivonne -It’s 27090010.

Fraser Pearce ● 2617d

Sorry Fraser - what is that number?Meanwhile as to remaining in the EU and what we may or may not agree to sign up in the future - we will have the option to do so just as we have had in the past. I would still much rather be part of the EU than be party to the US's whims. Perhaps one of the reasons I am so passionate about remaining is that like many other people (not all I agree)  who are British I am half European by birth anyway. British first and foremost but still European IYSWIM.

Lucille Grant ● 2617d

What do the numbers mean, Fraser????

Ivonne Holliday ● 2617d

The unredacted version? (I have not checked).

David Ainsworth ● 2617d

Lucille. Although I consider myself a Londoner and British I also consider myself European as well. My wife's father was born French, I have French in-laws, many Irish friends, numerous friends who are European or part European, and have worked with many European colleagues over the years. Together with my British friends all seem mystified as to why the UK wants to leave the EU. The EU isn't perfect but let's fix it, not throws it away. I agree, we don't want to be at the whims of the US, particularly while it's lead by a volatile president who some consider mentally unstable or ill, or the authoritarian Chinese and Russian states. I have to say I also have some US friends, who would also agree with these opinions (although a couple of those did start life with UK passports). Finally, I think at least one of my English UKIP voting relations have shifted their position as they can see the financial uncertainty as a downside of Brexit affecting their retirement savings ... but at least we've been able to discuss this if not change views.

Michael Ixer ● 2617d

It’s the product code for refined petroleum (with reference to Sean’s Yellowhammer quote further up this thread). People here shouldn’t be expected to know this. Civil servants and politicians, however, should – and the media should hold them to account.…Another example of how we’re (Remainers and Leavers) being guided by spivs.

Fraser Pearce ● 2617d

*Another example of how we’re (Remainers and Leavers) being guided by spivs.*On that we do agree Fraser.

Lucille Grant ● 2617d

Fraser. I may have misunderstood it - oil products isn't an area I'm that familiar with these days, the last time I was on an oil platform was in the 1970s! - however, I thought paragraph 15 was concerned with the fact that if the UK crashed out of the UK and under WTO was putting a zero tax on imports then this would also apply to cheap imports from non EU countries. These might undercut the price of internally refined UK products, thus potentially putting UK refineries out of business? As I say I may have got that wrong, or perhaps the civil servants did, which is why it's been redacted?

Michael Ixer ● 2617d

I'm interested that paragraphs 8, 9 and 10 are so cursory. Given that financial services and processing of data are major sources of income for the UK, and law enforcement databases are going to be critical to the new movement checks that Brexiteers want I would expect to see multiplage sections as to bow these were being mitigated given there's been three years to address these. I would expect these are areas where -for regulatory reasons: MiFID II, GDPR, NISD, etc - these will need EU agreement and processes. Looks like too little, too late to me? Looks like the Tories might be toasts if there's a no deal Brexit ...?

Michael Ixer ● 2617d

"*Another example of how we’re (Remainers and Leavers) being guided by spivs.*On that we do agree Fraser."Even amongst spivs, there is a ranking.

David Ainsworth ● 2617d

You’re a better man than me, Michael, I’ve never been on a rig (I’m genuinely jealous)! I used to advise policy makers (and can tell a Whitehall mandarin from an énarque just by looking at ‘em). Over the years, some stuff was revealed here, albeit watered down.I’m not even sure all of Yellowhammer was written by civil servants. I also agree that it “Looks like too little, too late”, lacking in depth, clarity and substance.

Fraser Pearce ● 2617d

“Even amongst spivs, there is a ranking.”Yes, David.Up to €500 billion unaccounted for since the 70s and more lobbyists than Washington. You can get a lot done with that kind of cash.

Fraser Pearce ● 2617d

Hi Fraser. Yes it was fun, I was still in my 20s then, installing and maintaining software. Only one one trip to the middle of the North Sea by 'copter and back via a Dakota from Sumburgh to Aberdeen (my software was pretty reliable!) But some trips via speedboat to one being built in a Norwegian fjord near Lervik - and had the opportunity to watch as they floated the base of one in the early stages of contraction onto its legs. In those days Aberdeen was vibrant and good fun - seemed more subdued when I went back around six years ago for an amateur astronomy conference. Perhaps it was just the people I was with, or me getting old ...Anyway, I'll defer to your judgement on this although I'm interested you think it isn't necessarily the work of civil servants ... but pleased we can agree on its inadequacies?

Michael Ixer ● 2617d

"Up to €500 billion unaccounted for since the 70s"Thank you for that. Is there an online source, please? A simple one preferred.

David Ainsworth ● 2617d

Hi Michael,It's official - I'm coming back as you in my next life.I think we do agree on Yellowhammer's inadequacies...

Fraser Pearce ● 2617d

"Thank you for that. Is there an online source, please? A simple one preferred."No David. There isn't.

Fraser Pearce ● 2617d