Forum Topic

At last, a poll for Putney

This is from Deltapoll:Con 38%Lab 35%Lib Dem 24%Green 2%With less than a week till the election, this settles the question of how to vote tactically against Brexit and/or the Conservatives.

Matthew Tiller ● 2530d28 Comments

Do you, in all honesty, believe in polls?

Ivonne Holliday ● 2530d

This forum isn't a reflection of this poll, as only about 5% on this forum are likely to vote for the conservatives.I guess it just goes to show that many in Putney don't bother coming on here listening to the nonsense from the Brexit-blockers.

Paul Game ● 2530d

Or, perhaps Paul, you are so deaf (I am by the way, profoundly after meningitis as an adult) that you cannot see the iron in front of you nose but yes the needle in somebody else's haystack!

Ivonne Holliday ● 2530d

Do I believe in polls? An honest answer requires some shades of grey. Obviously I don’t believe every poll is perfect - that would create paradoxes when polls contradict each other. And it’s easy to look back and find a poll that got things wrong by a few percentage points.But when a poll puts Labour 11 points ahead of the Lib Dems, that has happened because of a real difference in the vote share that won’t be reversed within a few days.

Matthew Tiller ● 2530d

Hello Matthew,I agree with you on your post.  I do not, however, believe that the Tories are home and dry neither do I believe that Labour will win outright.Hand in heart, I wish a third party would win and give the shock of their lives to the cons and labour.A shake up in politics would, in my view, be unbelievably positive. Nobody has the 100% truth on their side.

Ivonne Holliday ● 2530d

Merry christmas Ivonne - one of my favourite Remainers on the forum, although I don't want to single people out. I 💙 all the Brexit-blockers equally.Im getting really excited now and feeling really confident the Tories will win the GE with between a 30-50 seat majority.Boris will finally be able to do BREXIT and we can all move on from this paralysis in parliament. Woohoo🍾🥳🍻

Paul Game ● 2530d

Wrong answer!

Ivonne Holliday ● 2530d

Why am I so confident?My grandad told me many years ago that whatever party best appealed to the centre ground are most likely to win any election.By and large this theory has always proved true in my adult life.Corbyn's hard left politics do not appeal to anywhere near enough of the centre ground.My grandad will be proved correct with his analysis on Dec 12th, bless his dear soul.

Paul Game ● 2530d

The problem Paul is identifying the centre ground.If you take Brexit that will be neither a hard Brexit or remain!

Ed Robinson ● 2530d

My father always says ‘ the Great British Public vote with common sense’ and should be trustedI just hope they do in Putney. Defies belief people in Putney would vote Labour. Or Liberals who have no chance of winning anyway.

Nick Gulliford ● 2530d

"My grandad told me many years ago that whatever party best appealed to the centre ground are most likely to win any election.By and large this theory has always proved true in my adult life.Corbyn's hard left politics do not appeal to anywhere near enough of the centre ground."It all depends what you mean by the centre. Apparently Corbyn would be a centrist in some other European countries:-"From his style to his policies Mr Corbyn would, in Norway, be an unremarkably mainstream, run-of-the-mill social-democrat." (from opendemocracy.net)Norway seems quite a decent place from the little I have heard about it.

David Ainsworth ● 2530d

Another perspective. Ok, I understand many are uncomfortable with Mr Corbyn for various reasons. However, what has Johnson said about how he will unite a divided country after this election should he obtain a working majority? He'll force through a Brexit deal that will likely cause the UK to split into its constituent components, continue with the piecemeal sell off of the NHS (no one would want to buy the whole thing), probably yield to business pressures to minimise climate change policies, continue increasing the divide between rich an poor? Well, perhaps not but who'd trust him not to, Corbyn's  correct on one point; Johnson doesn't listen.

Michael Ixer ● 2530d

Thank you Matthew.  That makes things very clear which way to vote to stop the Taliban ERG and Brexit.

Sarah Roberts ● 2530d

http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Putney-web.pdfLooks like the more the choice in Putney is presented as LAB or CON the more likely a CON win here is :(

Rob Anderson ● 2530d

Pages 8 to 13.

Rob Anderson ● 2530d

"If you could go back in time would you choose to stop the Brexit referendum ever being held or not?Field work dates: 31 October 2019 - 2 November 2019"Group: "Yes – I would go back in time and stop the Brexit referendum being held" 53%53%https://tinyurl.com/vuxoxzf

David Ainsworth ● 2530d

Nick, it isn't just the people of Putney - don't forget the Constituancy covers the Roehampton and Southfields too.  People across the whole constituency may well hold different views.

Liam Jones ● 2530d

‘The three latest constituency surveys underline the potential impact of tactical voting. Putney, Southport and Guildford all elected Conservative MPs last time, despite voting heavily to remain in the 2016 referendum. Currently, the Conservatives lead Labour in Putney (by 3%) and Southport (by 8%). Guildford is almost neck-and-neck between the Lib Dems (41%) and the Conservatives (40%). Given margins of error on local surveys with samples of 500, all three seats are in play. Enough tactical votes for Labour in Putney and Southport, and the Lib Dems in Guildford, could defeat the Tories in all three seats.’https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/08/tactical-voting-guide-2019-keep-tories-out-remain-voter-general-electionAlso, https://tactical.vote/compare has been showing all aligned behind labour since last week. Vote. Don’t vote conservative. In Putney, vote labour. Stop Boris. Stop Brexit.

Clare Noeken ● 2530d

If you carry on reading that article in the Guardian, the poll shows that if there were only a realistic choice of labour or conservative, Putney would currently return Conservative. Yet if there were only a realistic choice of LibDem or conservative, Putney would return LibDem. So the obvious conclusion is to vote LibDem. The problem is that it really is Labour that is splitting the vote. There are plenty of Labour supporters who could, albeit reluctantly, vote LibDem. But there are many lifelong Labour supporters like me who could never bring themselves to vote Labour while Jeremy Corbyn is at the helm. There are also many more natural Conservatives who could never vote Labour, but wont vote Tory with BoJo in charge.

Andrew Thomas ● 2530d

The result for the hypothetical “What if it were only Labour and Conservative” is within the margin of error, Rob. Don’t worry about that.What isn’t within the margin of error is the Lib Dems being 14 percentage points behind the Tories in real-world voting intentions and unable to catch them, whereas Labour and the Tories are neck and neck. This is the real choice where tactical voting can stop the Tories and Brexit.

Matthew Tiller ● 2530d

If Corbyn has said BEFORE the referendum that he was going to sit on the fence over Brexit as it will divide the country people would have accepted his neutral stance, but to say he is sitting on the fence after the vote in 2016  is really weak leadership. He is a leaver but is pandering to the Remainers in his party.We've had the vote Corbyn, get on with it.5M Labour leave voters are furious with him.

Paul Game ● 2530d

SarahI doubt Corbin will stop the Taliban hes mors likely to invite them round for tea with ISIS Hesbollah and the IRA .Now tgatcwoukd be a bad hatters tea party

Andy Pike ● 2530d

Among the many typos in my last post was reference to a bad hatters rather than a mad hatters tea party.There again maybe I got it right 1st time

Andy Pike ● 2530d

"I doubt Corbin will stop the Taliban hes mors likely to invite them round for tea with ISIS Hesbollah and the IRA .Now tgatcwoukd be a bad hatters tea party"And that, ladies and gentlemen, really exemplifies why Labour will lose this election.

David Ainsworth ● 2530d

"Among the many typos in my last post"The typos are only a minor problem with it.

David Ainsworth ● 2530d

That’s not true. In the last general election, Justine won by only 1554 votes against a poor labour candidate. Labour got nearly 41% of that vote, with Lib Dems only 11.6% of the vote. I voted Lib Dem, and was gutted when I realised that if even only some of those votes had gone to labour, the conservatives would have lost the seat. For me personally, Brexit overrides everything else. I don’t care who leads the parties. Any manifesto commitment, from any party, is pie in the sky if we leave the EU. The most important thing is to vote for a route to remain in the EU. In Putney, as Justine is not standing as an independent, that means voting labour. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Putney_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

Clare Noeken ● 2530d

Taliban are renowned for hanging people in the streets from lamp posts, chopping heads off and suicide bombing.Errrmmmmm......Can't quite see your link to the ERG?

Paul Game ● 2530d

As Andrew points out: ... 'there are many lifelong Labour supporters like me who could never bring themselves to vote Labour while Jeremy Corbyn is at the helm. There are also many more natural Conservatives who could never vote Labour, but won't vote Tory with BoJo in charge.'

Lucille Grant ● 2530d