Forum Topic

Covid-19 is bad, but worse will follow if we don't act

A useful if depressing reminder that, bad though the Covid-19 outbreak is, the climate emergency will be far worse if it's not tackled. A new research paper finds that, "that for thousands of years, humans have concentrated in a surprisingly narrow subset of Earth’s available climates, characterized by mean annual temperatures around 13 °C. This distribution likely reflects a human temperature niche related to fundamental constraints. We demonstrate that depending on scenarios of population growth and warming ... in the absence of migration, one third of the global population is projected to experience a mean annual temperature greater than 29 °C [which is] currently found in only 0.8% of the Earth’s land surface, mostly concentrated in the Sahara."And of course the worst affected will be in developing countries, where live the poorest and least able to act. https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/28/1910114117

Richard Carter ● 2380d30 Comments

The skies have never been clearer.  The real problem is overpopulation.

Chantal Blake-Milton ● 2379d

Air pollution in Wandsworth has actually increased over the last month.https://www.swlondoner.co.uk/air-pollution-in-wandsworth-getting-worse-despite-national-lockdown/

Matt Palmer ● 2379d

Matt, that story is nearly a month old.  The picture is very different depending on the pollutants measured. Traffic flows have fallen dramatically and hence NO2 levels are way down even in the High St. With PM levels things are less clear cut and the article may be right that greater use of home heating has contributed to that. But the weather has been much warmer through most of April and some folk may even have switched their central heating off. Anecdotally many people right across London have commented on how much clearer the air is, not to mention how much quieter life is with less traffic, virtually no aircraft and a lot more people out walking and cycling. Let us all hope that the New Normal will mean a greater and more permanent switch from car to bike to feet. I’ve never done so much walking and cycling!

Jonathan Callaway ● 2379d

There are a lot of mitigating factors in that report Matt.  However I have definitely noticed an increase in car use over the last two weeks, and the pollution levels will inevitably creep up again once lockdown is lifted.I agree with Chantal, over-population is the biggest threat to our planet.

Sue Hammond ● 2379d

ah i didnt spot the date, sorry about that.Not sure what there is to do about over-population really, I dont think people here would take too kindly to a china one-child type policy.

Matt Palmer ● 2379d

Yes Matt a one child regime would not work, unfortunately. The other way is to hit the pocket and make it less financially attractive to breed. What happened to the policy of only paying child benefit (or whatever it's called) for two children only?

Sue Hammond ● 2379d

No idea but either way that only targets people on lower incomes which is hardly fair.What about richer people who have more than two kids?

Matt Palmer ● 2379d

Jonathan is right: the picture currently is rather different from the one presented in the SW Londoner; in Putney High Street there was a small increase in monthly mean PM10 levels of around 20% on the recent average (of around 20 micrograms per cubic litre of air) between March and April, but the current level so far in May is 13.9. NO2 levels have been falling since January (not sure why that is) and are currently at 24.3 micrograms per cubic litre, comfortably below the 40 microgram limit. But if (when?) traffic levels do increase, levels will rise again.You can check the levels at any of the London monitoring points here: https://www.londonair.org.uk/LondonAir/LATools/MonthlyAverages.aspx

Richard Carter ● 2379d

Chantal then you should be relieved  there are so many deaths from Covid-19.

Lucille Grant ● 2379d

"On November 4, 2013, astronomers reported, based on Kepler space mission data, that there could be as many as 40 billion Earth-sized planets orbiting in the habitable zones of Sun-like stars and red dwarf stars within the Milky Way Galaxy. The nearest such planet may be 12 light-years away."(Wikipedia)Out of 40 billion, I should have thought that one other inhabited planet might have contacted us in all the years. It may be that life as we know it can only develop to our sort of level, and then it over-reaches and falls back, or worse.

David Ainsworth ● 2379d

@Matt"No idea but either way that only targets people on lower incomes which is hardly fair,"What's unfair about it?  Contraception is available free for people who cannot afford to pay for it so there is no excuse for people to have kids they can't afford.  I would have loved to own a Ferrari but I couldn't afford one so I wasn't able to have one.  Same principle."What about richer people who have more than two kids?"They are just as irresponsible but at least they don't rely on the welfare state to pay for their kids.  As in many other situations, if you have the money, you have the means.  Not fair but that's reality.  Can't think of a socially acceptable solution.

Sue Hammond ● 2379d

Sorry but last time I checked (some time ago) resources used per head differed wildly between countries with the US being highest.Just saying over population is just a disguised dig at developing countries.Parts of Scotland are under populated for example. Population tends to go down when living standards, health & education increase.As we have just found out, we all rely on key workers who are subsidised by the state due to the low wages they receive. So the economic argument doesnt hold either!

Ed Robinson ● 2379d

"Just saying over population is just a disguised dig at developing countries."No it isn't.  If anything it's more of a 'dig' at the developed countries that have the knowledge and resources to keep the population at a manageable level.

Sue Hammond ● 2379d

How do you explain the unequal consumption of resoures?

Ed Robinson ● 2379d

Sue and I were discussing how to lower population growth in the UK, not developing countries.

Matt Palmer ● 2379d

What is there to explain? The bigger the population in a developed country, the more resources will be used, seems fairly obvious to me. I use common sense, something a lot of academics and so called experts appear to lack.

Sue Hammond ● 2379d

It still ignores the fact of unequal consumption of resources and under valuation of economic worth.If we lower the population but increase consumption to US levels it will get us no where.Equally applying restrictions on workers who are already undervalued economically for their labour will just exaggerate the other issues we have in our society.Lastly I need to go to specsavers it seems!

Ed Robinson ● 2379d

but it misses the point.You said we need to lower population growth to limit climate change. That should apply equally to everyone, I don't see why if you are on benefits you should be forced to have less kids but if you're rich it doesnt matter and climate be damned.Especially bearing in mind that rich kids and their families are more likely to take more flights, drive gas guzzlers etc.

Matt Palmer ● 2379d

"Out of 40 billion, I should have thought that one other inhabited planet might have contacted us in all the years"Perhaps they sent an email and it ended up in someone's spam folder and no one answered.It happens apparently!

Ed Robinson ● 2378d

People of Earth, we tried to deliver a message, but you were out. It will be available for collection for 10 of your Earth days at your local sorting office at Alpha Centauri (only 4 light years away).

David Ainsworth ● 2378d

So what happens if you start off rich and have lots of kids but then end up poor?  You can't unhave those kids.  What do you suggest happens to them?  Funnily enough the majority of families here in the UK don't have a lot of kids. It is no longer 2.4 but 1.7 and dropping per British family.  What about the growing elderly population? It was going down but is now creeping up again (or was before Covid 19).  There are those who are ill and who do not want to live any longer and have to go to court to try to be allowed to die.  Should we be more like Holland and Belgium and the other countries that allow assisted suicide or voluntary euthanasia? I am reminded of a particularly objectionable teenager we were sitting next to in an Oxford restaurant whose parents appeared to be trying to persuade to come on a family holiday and who was loudly refusing to followed by a "Hurry up and die so that I can have the house".  Perhaps it was just that he was just planning a "free house" party?  Or was it?

Philippa Bond ● 2378d

If you investigate your family tree here in the west you are bound to find that in Victorian times your grandparents or great grandparents had much larger families.  You may never have realised how big they were or how many died particularly as babies.  The babies are unlikely to be remembered several generations later.  That was before we had the better living standards and health care that we have today.  Now is a good opportunity to have a look on the internet and do some research and ask older relatives for their stories.  It is fascinating looking at the old electoral rolls to see who was living at each address and their occupations at each census. Before WW2 when FIL was a boy he used to have to find half a crown to pay the doctor.  How things have changed.

Philippa Bond ● 2378d

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/07/promiscuous-treatment-of-nature-will-lead-to-more-pandemics-scientistsThis again comes back to our lifestyles, indulgences, waste and self-absorption.  It is good to read that food waste has reduced during this pandemic crisis according to WRAP.  Hopefully we have all learnt something new and how to waste less!  I see that fellow WRWA member Lambeth has made an effort to encourage their residents to start composting.  This will enrich their garden soils which will in turn allow them to absorb more water and create less run-off and flooding when there are sudden heavy rainstorms.

Philippa Bond ● 2378d

A lot of people were killed in the WW1 and WW2, you had Consumption TB , Polio. Lung problems caused by smog. Whooping Cough, Diphtheria, German Measles, Measles, Mumps, Glandular Fever, Quincy. Some of these have been brought back into our Country from abroad. Should we not test people coming into the country to alleviate some of these and worse. Why keep letting people in, putting a strain on NHS. Also accommodation for all the people already living here.

Barbara Stevens ● 2378d

Blame the Pope who didn't allow contraception.

Barbara Stevens ● 2378d

I've never understood phasing out the TB vaccination in the UK.I was reading an article by a doctor abroad who was complaining that we have a vaccine for TB but it is just not produced in sufficient quantities. I guess there is no money in it.Sometimes, just like the airports being open, there is no logical explanation.

Ed Robinson ● 2377d

Ed, I paid for my children to have the BCG, as it is no longer routine like when I was a child.  I am all for having as many vaccinations as possible.  However I refuse the flu vaccination because every time I have had it I have a really bad cold or flu afterwards.  Haven’t had the flu or a cold this winter.  Hope it stays that way.  I won’t let my children have the flu jab, either.

Martine Guy ● 2377d

Maybe we should ban all holidays abroad?

Philippa Bond ● 2377d

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2017/jul/11/melinda-gates-deeply-troubled-by-trump-cuts-to-family-planning-fundsThere are very good interviews with Melinda Gates where she discusses her Catholic faith and her belief in how planned parenthood empowers women.

Philippa Bond ● 2375d

I have had the flu vaccination since the year I was so ill with it that it frightened me. It is interesting how different cold viruses can be.  Sometimes they start with sneezing and a runny nose and you brush them off easily but sometimes they go straight to your chest.  A cough can take ages to get rid of.  Maybe it is just as you get older and your immunity to everything reduces.  We don't get enough Vit D easily in this country and the outgoing CMO said she thought we we should all be taking supplements.

Philippa Bond ● 2375d