Forum Topic

This crisis is a real opportunity for serious change

There are two ways out of the present crisis. We could simply sink back into the old ways of wasteful travel, gridlocked traffic and the pollution it produces and the destruction of the environment through global heating. Or we could seize the opportunity to deal properly with the climate crisis before it is too late.Rahm Emanuel's dictum that you should never let a crisis go to waste has become such a cliche now, but in the case of the coronavirus outbreak, there really is truth in it. As the FT argues in today's main editorial, governments should launch new policies to promote a green economic recovery, choosing to emulate FDR's New Deal by using their spending power to stimulate an economic recovery that doesn't lock in a fossil-fuel economy - and foolish fossil-fuel subsidies should be the first to go. But there is so much more that governments can do, from a complete restructuring of economies, retraining workers to do sustainable jobs, investing in renewable energy and controlling the ubiquity of the car (and Sadiq Khan's plans to close many central London streets in favour of walkers and cyclists is a small start in the right direction).But will governments, ours in particular have the foresight to take this path? I'm not holding my breath (though I may have to if pollution on our streets starts shooting up again).

Richard Carter ● 2368d25 Comments

Not much to add Richard, except I totally agree with you.

Bunny Payne ● 2368d

All good stuff, Richard. Why do I not feel optimistic ... still sometimes it's good when one's wrong, perhaps I'll be pleasantly surprised 🙂 

Michael Ixer ● 2368d

Well, you might be right to not feel optimistic if you read Michael Freedland's recent Guardian article:-"Still, for now, the pandemic has been a boon to the world’s authoritarians, tyrants and bigots. It has given them what they crave most: fear and the cover of darkness." (He mentions Xi, Assad, Orban, Trump, Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Modi).https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/15/under-cover-of-coronavirus-the-worlds-bad-guys-are-wreaking-havoc

David Ainsworth ● 2368d

Here is the new proposed green Hammersmith Bridge replacement  based on the Hollands expertise:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YP32iWoqjnQOn a more serious note - the biggest cycling event will be a huge increase in public transport fares - followed by lower numbers of travellers and  higher even higher fares.I can't help but think that it's been left too late to reform London's public transport.

Ed Robinson ● 2368d

The whole purpose of the ridiculously disproportionate lockdown/shutdown is for the government (and other disproportionate lockdowns by governments controlled by the same rulers) to implement the policies described by Richard, which will be a dream come true for some people, but it comes at the price of the nightmares for all people as described in the article referred to by Michael. Society completely revamped as tailored by ‘our rulers’ without a single democratic vote being cast. It does add weight to the theory that the virus was ‘put out there’.

Michael Brown ● 2368d

It adds no weight at all. The theory that "the virus was put out there" is a laughable conspiracy theory with not a shred of serious evidence to support it.In these difficult times, we need to be kept amused, and having a ready supply of clowms is an advantage. It adds to the entertainment when they don't appreciate their true role.Meanwhile, I have decided that rather than 5G masts, the virus is being spread by cats. Unlike with the masts, there is bona fide scientific evidence to support this. Just as soon as the badger cullers are re-purposed to start to take out the domestic cat population, life can return to normal. Anyone can help with this.

Michael Winstanley ● 2368d

"they'll be putting a bit more out when required."Well, perhaps, as you know all, you might give us a warning just before "they" do it. By the way, if you are so clued up, how come "they" haven't muzzled you, after all these years? Indeed, who are "they"? How come that "their" security is so bad?

David Ainsworth ● 2368d

Mr Winstanley - I do hope you were joking about 'taking out the domestic cat population'. If not, there'll be quite a few cat lovers on this forum who'll be suggesting 'taking you out'!

Lucille Grant ● 2368d

Good morning Richard, I agree with you that crises are mayor opportunities to implement change.  I would say very seriously considered and thought out change.   You are very right in concentrating on the environment. Up till now, spring and summer have been ideal for the increase of cycling but it does reduce considerably in the cold, rainy and snowy months of winter.  I wholeheartedly support the wider use of electric cars and yes, many people do need their cars — but we do not need polluting cars. I would definitely support a greater change in the way the economy is currently set; it is so centralized in London, it is counter productive.  The example that comes to mind from the TV programme "What Britain buys and sells in a day" is farmed salmon from Scotland that is transported by road to London so it can be exported via Heathrow.  Why? Does The City need to be based in Central London?  Also, in view of the crisis, is the expansion of Heathrow really necessary?  The UK does need expansion of airports for trade, but that does not mean it needs to be centered in London.  Unless of course we decide we are not to import food anymore — not likely but could happen!  But we also need to export a lot of our products (particularly chilled or frozen perishable delights), but it does not have to be from Heathrow! Just a few thoughts. Thank you.

Ivonne Holliday ● 2368d

Good morning Michael Winstanley, What bona fide scientific evidence have you found to support the virus is being spread by cats?  Or do you not like cats at all?  I ask because all information I have seen so far clearly indicates that the virus is NOT spread by dogs or cats. 

Ivonne Holliday ● 2368d

While we are about it, what about dogs? Did Monty Don's dog Nigel die of Covid 19 I wonder?

Caroline Whitehead ● 2368d

IvonneGood points. Certainly some people need their own cars but even the motor industry recoignises the market is changing with not juysy electric vehicles becoming the future. At the same time they anticipate vehicle ownership diminishing in favour of sharing either via car clubs or an Uber type model and, possibly in the distant future (who knows when and where?), based around self drive vehicles. When I was a teenager living in Essex I cycled everywhere but when I moved to London in my late teens driving, walking and public transport seemed safer. But if we have more traffic free cycle ways perhaps more people, including me, might be enticed back onto two wheels.London is the centre of the economy, I guess for historical reasons, although Edinburgh is also a significant finance centre. Not sure why food distribution is centralised here - possibly to do with consumption versus production centres? With regard to finance, there have been moves for cost saving reasons to disperse functions away from London but there have been issues. The movement of call centres to places as diverse as India or the Philippines hasn't been well received by customers; recruitment has been difficult - London has a pool of skilled, experienced, trained staff not necessarily available elsewhere - and monitoring and enforcement of staff to ensure compliance regulations are being followed is easier in a centralised trading environment. None of those is insurmountable, the insurance industry started relocating from London in the 1970s, and the current crisis should give an impetus for rapid rather than the slow evolutionary change when the Finance industry is living off the fat of the land?I'm sure the air transport industry will have to reform, many were just surviving on a knife edge before the crisis, and producers like Boeing appear to have organisational cultural problems if they're prepared to hide life threating product faults. Let's hope there be a move to trains for short haul travel, the days of ridiculously cheap flights are probably over? I can see the environmental positives in that but I'm a bit sad in a way - travel should broaden the mind - but perhaps not if one's just going clubbing for the booze, sex and sun! Still, with global warming that'll be available soon in Brighton, Bognar or Blackpool depending on your preferences   

Michael Ixer ● 2368d

Thanks, Ivonne. It's interesting that a group of 170 Dutch sociologists and environmentalists have published a joint manifesto aimed at providing the aim of making society radically more sustainable in a radical transformation that needs decisive measures. There's a brief report of it here https://www.trouw.nl/duurzaamheid-natuur/manifest-van-170-wetenschappers-het-is-een-blunder-als-we-niet-groener-uit-de-coronacrisis-komen~b12864df/ (oddly, my phone gives the option of seeing this in Dutch or English but my computer doesn't) and the full manifesto (only in Dutch) here: https://drive.google.com/a/persgroep.net/file/d/1CjDgo3mjcxvR_mFZyPY2Ga-P022lsqYk/view?usp=sharing).There are five points to the manifesto, which (with the help of Mr Google) I've translated below:1) Replacement of the current development model, which is aimed at endless growth in the GNP with one that distinguishes between (a) sectors that should grow and need investment (the vital public sectors, clean energy, education, health and social care) and (b) sectors that should shrink radically, given their fundamental lack of sustainability or their role in driving excessive consumption (such as the oil, gas, mining, and advertising sectors).2) Develop an economic policy of redistribution, providing for a universal basic income, embedded in solid social policy; strongly progressive taxation of income, profit and wealth; shorter working weeks and job sharing; and recognition of the intrinsic value of healthcare and essential public services such as education and health care.3) Transition to circular agriculture, based on the conservation of biodiversity, sustainable, mostly local food production, reduction of meat production and employment with fair working conditions.4) Reduction in consumption and travel, with a radical decrease in luxury and wasteful expenditure, towards necessary, sustainable and useful forms of consumption and travel.5) Remission of debts, mainly to employees, self-employed persons and entrepreneurs in SMEs, but also to developing countries (to be carried out by both the wealthier countries through international organizations like the IMF and the World Bank).It's certainly radical, but if we are ever to avoid the disaster that global heating will provide, something like this is going to be needed.

Richard Carter ● 2367d

There's no suggestion pets are a risk (although they may not be completely immune to the virus there's no evidence they can spread it), humans are the propagator of the virus. Perhaps my namesake would like one of these?https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/08/tech/singapore-coronavirus-social-distancing-robot-intl-hnk/index.htmlAnyway, Felicity says Mr B  talks a loiad of bollaux, he should check his facts 😺 ...https://www.flickr.com/gp/m-j-i/2Me39a

Michael Ixer ● 2367d

Well perhaps they can go down side street's and not main roads as they are a real pain. Two women cyclists not thinking of their dogs, one the poor dog was scared and kept trying to go down a side turning as she was on the Lower Richmond Rd, the other in Barnes High Street, the dog was on the pavement and the woman on the road and the dog was about to go round a lamp post. This is so stupid and dangerous. Think more of your animals than your blasted selves.

Barbara Stevens ● 2367d

Interesting stuff Richard. My concern is that the Dutch environmentals and sociologists don't have any influence to push this agenda. The prime movers in the next step seem to be the US and China, and I can't see Johnson in the UK now he has an anti EU mandate from the last election having much sympathy with anything suggested by Europe; he seems more likely to align with the US, although I must admit his moves seem to be tactical rather than planned within any strategy so he could still surprise us. If the US decide to give Trump another four years, a reality that has to be faced, the environment is probably a lost cause; even a Democratic victory would be against the power of the economic power of the large corporations so would be a sloiw struggle. It's unclear what China's strategy is - I'm not sure it's anti-environment, more likely it wants to show the US a managed capitalist market works better than a "free" one? And the Chinese will be more ruthless and focused; they have no public transparency and accountability of decisions and actions. For all its faults the US, UK and EU has an independent free press and social media of varying degrees. It's good to see Obama finally opening up again, but sadly I think we may have to wasn't until November to see how we're proceeding ...

Michael Ixer ● 2367d

At least the owner won’t have to pick up after his robot dog. Might scientists one day be able to create a robot cat?  Somehow I can’t see even the finest AI software understanding a cat’s mind.

Jonathan Callaway ● 2367d

Thank you Richard — will read with care later on. The Dutch are excellent and determined environmentalists (Boyan Slat anybody?) but regrettably, as Michael Ixer says, do not have enough influence politically.  I wonder if this will change now?

Ivonne Holliday ● 2367d

Jonathan, I think the software model for cat AI would need to take elements of the selfish gene and the god particle then bind them with Schrödinger's uncertainty principle ... but that's why they're so fascinating and likeable; slaves to no one 😺

Michael Ixer ● 2367d

Someone would need to investigate that. It sounds like a wild theory to me.As regards the infection being carried and spread by cats, this is proven scientific fact, as this letter in the prestigious New England Journal of Medecine shows:https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2013400Far less evidence was gathered prior to arranging badger culls to protect cattle against bovine TB - a threat is neither fatal nor to humans.What's sauce for the badger.......

Michael Winstanley ● 2367d

The Dutch paper may be a bit theoretical for some, so here are some examples of practical suggestions for the way forward:☞ Eric Lonergan and Mark Blyth of the IPPR have set out the steps needed to ensure that any bailouts of private companies are in the public interest, including making sure that the state is able to share in the gains from recovery including taking equity shares in return for the support: https://www.ippr.org/files/2020-03/1585237065_beyond-bailouts-march2020.pdf☞ The New Economics Foundation has similar suggestions: https://neweconomics.org/2020/04/bailouts-the-new-normalBuild Back Better argues for a new deal that prioritises people, invests in our NHS and creates a robust, shockproof economy that is capable of tackling the climate crisis☞ Let’s Change the Rules has a range of suggestions for replacing fossil fuels and restoring the balance with nature: https://letschangetherules.org/policies-and-solutions/green☞ Compass has a number of pieces suggesting ways in which the country can be rebuilt after coronavirus:  https://www.compassonline.org.uk/reasons-for-hope-why-and-how-we-can-buildbackbetter/☞ Finally, on the public health aspects of Covid-19, Professor David McCoy discusses the need for a much broader, whole-societal response in a 7-point manifesto: https://www.medact.org/2020/blogs/covid-19-affects-everything-more-than-a-disease-control-plan-we-need-a-manifesto/

Richard Carter ● 2367d

There are some recorded cases of domestic pets having CV19 which have been referenced before on the forum. I believe there may be others. I'm not sure how rigorous the documentation of these instances was but as with the NY zoo tigers it was inferred they'd caught the disease from humans (owners/keepers). It's questionable whether deliberately infecting animals is comparable with transmission between pets outside the home. OK, dog's are sociable so might pass it on during a walk but my experience with cats is they're pretty territorial so transmission risk is fairly limited, and, in any case, there's no evidence of pet to human transmission. I'd guess pets are low risk compared to pubs, restaurants, theatre, football matches, schools, etc? And, yes, agreed, no evidence for badger culling; even the leader of one study, Lord Krebs, said that - purely a political move to keep the NUS happy?

Michael Ixer ● 2367d

If only serious change involved a rethink about aviation policy. Today's Times has a piece about Heathrow expanding flights again, and John Holland-Kaye's determination to press ahead with a third runway. The Supreme Court has fixed the date for Heathrow's appeal for early October, which is earlier than the No3rdrunway Coalition, who are very much on the ball with this, were anticipating. The Times piece implied no one really has a clue what the government's position is, not least since Johnson ran away to Afghanistan on the day of the Commons' vote.I've just been revelling in these plane free days, reading in my  garden, enjoying it while I can.

Elizabeth Balsom ● 2366d

https://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/environmental-audit-committee/news-parliament-2017/covid-19-and-environment-evidence-19-211/

Philippa Bond ● 2358d

The London air quality issue goes back to 2010. If you think back to 2008 someone cancelled the western congestion charge extension. I wonder who that was? What happened to the fine???https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jan/14/uk-failed-to-enforce-eu-air-quality-standards-what-will-happen-after-brexit

Ed Robinson ● 2358d