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Trump in the Atlantic yesterday

"In a telephone interview this morning, President Donald Trump issued a not-so-veiled threat against the new Venezuelan leader, Delcy Rodríguez, saying that “if she doesn’t do what’s right, she is going to pay a very big price, probably bigger than Maduro,” referring to Nicolás Maduro, now residing in a New York City jail cell. Trump made clear that he would not stand for Rodríguez’s defiant rejection of the armed U.S. intervention that resulted in Maduro’s capture.""pay a very big price, probably bigger than Maduro,”So death, maybe?"When I asked this morning why nation building and regime change in Venezuela would be different from similar efforts he previously opposed in Iraq, Trump suggested posing the question to former President George W. Bush.“I didn’t do Iraq. That was Bush. You’ll have to ask Bush that question, because we should have never gone into Iraq. That started the Middle East disaster,” Trump said.""Secretary of State Marco Rubio said yesterday that the world should take notice after the Venezuela operation. “​​When he tells you that he’s going to do something, when he tells you he’s going to address a problem, he means it,” Rubio said. Trump has repeatedly said that the U.S. “needs” to control Greenland.Trump said it was up to others to decide what U.S.-military action in Venezuela means for Greenland. “They are going to have to view it themselves. I really don’t know. He was very generous to me, Marco, yesterday,” Trump said. “You know, I wasn’t referring to Greenland at that time. But we do need Greenland, absolutely. We need it for defense.”"https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2026/01/trump-venezuela-maduro-delcy-rodriguez/685497/"After the raid, a former Trump administration official turned podcaster, Katie Miller, posted an illustrated map of Greenland in the colours of the US stars and stripes with the caption: "SOON." (Sky News 4/1)(Ms Miller is married to Mr Trump's influential deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller)."On Sunday, Dmitry ‍Medvedev, a former Russian president and close ally of Vladimir Putin, said the attacks on Venezuela were unlawful but consistent because Mr Trump was defending US interests.“It must be acknowledged ‍that, ‌despite the obvious unlawfulness of Trump’s behaviour, one cannot deny a certain consistency ‍in his actions. He and his team defend their country’s national interests quite harshly,” he told state news."So what sort of lesson is it for Russia and China then?

David Ainsworth ● 6d50 Comments ● 4d

How Venezuela’s natural resources turn it into a geopolitical prize for US

From Business Today (India):-"Explained: How Venezuela’s natural resources turn it into a geopolitical prize for USBeyond politics and personalities, the core driver is Venezuela’s vast concentration of energy, minerals, metals, and freshwater — resources that can reshape global supply chains and power balances if brought under US influence.The recent US operation in Venezuela has pushed the country from a long-running regional crisis into the centre of global strategic calculations. Beyond politics and personalities, the core driver is Venezuela’s vast concentration of energy, minerals, metals, and freshwater — resources that can reshape global supply chains and power balances if brought under US influence. This is why Venezuela is increasingly viewed not just as a foreign policy challenge, but as a geopolitical prize. 1. Oil: Energy scale leverage Venezuela holds the largest proven crude oil reserves in the world — more than 300 billion barrels, surpassing Saudi Arabia. Why it matters to the US: Acts as a pressure valve against OPEC supply manipulation Enables price stabilisation — or disruption — during global crises Offers leverage over global inflation via energy markets Strengthens US control over Western Hemisphere energy flows With US capital, technology, and logistics, Venezuelan oil could be rapidly integrated into global supply systems on Washington’s terms. 2. Natural Gas: Strategic hedge against global volatility Venezuela’s 200 trillion cubic feet of natural gas give it latent power in a world marked by energy shocks. Strategic value post-operation: Reduces exposure to EU-Russia gas volatility Creates future LNG export leverage if infrastructure scales Strengthens US bargaining power in transatlantic energy diplomacy Gas is not just fuel — it is geopolitical insurance. 3. Iron Ore & Coal: Industrial & military backbone Venezuela has billions of tonnes of iron ore and hundreds of millions of tonnes of coal, essential for industrial production. Why Washington cares: Steel supply underpins military manufacturing Critical for rail, ports, and logistics infrastructure Becomes strategic stock in war-preparation cycles In geopolitical competition, heavy industry resources function like strategic reserves. 4. Gold: Strategic collateral in a shifting financial order With more than 8,000 tonnes of gold resources, Venezuela holds one of the largest gold endowments in the world. Post-operation significance: Provides sovereign collateral amid rising debt stress Gains importance as trust in fiat currencies weakens Positions the US favorably in a potential commodity-backed financial reset Gold is no longer just wealth — it is credibility. 5. Freshwater: Overlooked strategic asset Venezuela controls about 2% of the world’s renewable freshwater, a critical resource in a climate-constrained future. Why it matters geopolitically: Anchors long-term food and agricultural security Enables population resilience and internal stability Enhances soft power through agricultural exports Water is emerging as a strategic resource on par with oil. 6. Strategic minerals: Countering China’s supply chain dominance Venezuela has largely untapped deposits of nickel, copper, and phosphates—key inputs for modern technology. US strategic upside: Supports battery, EV, and semiconductor supply chains Reduces dependence on China-controlled mineral flows Secures inputs for defense and advanced manufacturing This is the long-game advantage embedded in Venezuela’s soil. After the US operation, Venezuela is no longer just a regional flashpoint — it is a strategic node in the global contest over energy, supply chains, and economic power.https://www.businesstoday.in/world/us/story/explained-how-venezuelas-natural-resources-turn-it-into-a-geopolitical-prize-for-us-509321-2026-01-04?utm_source=rssfeed

David Ainsworth ● 7d2 Comments ● 6d

"From the world cop to the world bully in less than one year".

"Americans probably still can be shocked and horrified. An undeclared, unprovoked, and illegal war designed to, well, we can only guess—though Donald Trump and JD Vance have seemed to concede this was a war for oil—puts the United States on the same moral and legal footing as Russia, which invaded its neighbor in a war of pure aggression. The U.S. president this weekend attacked a sovereign nation, killed its citizens, and kidnapped its leader.Rep, Jim Himes, ranking Democrat on the Intelligence Committee, said in a statement:Maduro is an illegitimate ruler, but I have seen no evidence that his presidency poses a threat that would justify military action without Congressional authorization, nor have I heard a strategy for the day after and how we will prevent Venezuela from descending into chaos. Secretary Rubio repeatedly denied to Congress that the Administration intended to force regime change in Venezuela. The Administration must immediately brief Congress on its plan to ensure stability in the region and its legal justification for this decision.Sen. Andy Kim (D-N.J.) aptly explained the constitutional outrage. “Trump rejected our Constitutionally required approval process for armed conflict because the Administration knows the American people overwhelmingly reject risks pulling our nation into another war,” he declared on social media. “This will further damage our reputation—already hurt by Trump’s policies around the world—and only isolate us in a time when we need our friends and allies more than ever.” Indeed, Mexico already denounced the action. Others are sure to follow.Any and all regime officials who insisted in congressional briefings that the boat strikes were about drugs, not regime change, lied to Congress as Kim and others have pointed out, and participated in a wholly unconstitutional war. Even Susie Wiles condeded in a recent Vanity Fair article that attacking the mainland would require congressional assent. So much for that.The U.S. attorney general declared that the United States had indicted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, on narcotics charges and will be tried in federal court. That outlandish proposition opens the seizure to scrutiny and raises the interesting possibility that Trump claims he enjoys immunity but not other heads of state.Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), an Iraq War veteran, posted a sobering warning: “I fought in some of the hardest battles of the Iraq War. Saw my brothers die, saw civilians being caught in the crossfire all for an unjustified war. No matter the outcome we are in the wrong for starting this war in Venezuela.” He added, “Second unjustified war in my life time. This war is illegal, it’s embarrassing that we went from the world cop to the world bully in less than one year. There is no reason for us to be at war with Venezuela.”"From:-"Headfirst Into WarThe horrific attack on Venezuela overnight puts the U.S. in the same camp as Russia.Jennifer RubinJan 3"

David Ainsworth ● 7d18 Comments ● 6d

Venezuela: as the Telegraph wrote - Trump invents a war

As The Telegraph wrote in November:- Counternarcotic experts have pointed out that Venezuela is a relatively minor player in global drug trafficking, and that it acts as a transit country through which drugs produced elsewhere are smuggled on their way to their final destination.

Its neighbour, Colombia, is the world's largest producer of cocaine but most of it is smuggled to the US by other routes, not via Venezuela.

According to a US Drug Enforcement report from 2020, almost three quarters of the cocaine reaching the US is estimated to be trafficked via the Pacific with just a small percentage coming via fast boats in the Caribbean.

Nevertheless, most of the strikes the US has carried out have been in the Caribbean, with just a few in the Pacific.

In September, Trump told US military leaders that the boats targeted "are stacked up with bags of white powder that's mostly fentanyl and other drugs, too".

However, fentanyl is produced mainly in Mexico and reaches the US almost exclusively via land through its southern border."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c93n4nx5yqro

"America is flexing its muscles in the Caribbean and the world is holding its breath. Washington has trained its sights on Socialist-run Venezuela, and the arrival of the colossal USS Gerald Ford has sparked the biggest military buildup since the Cuban Missile Crisis. Operation Southern Spear is now under way: a dozen warships, thousands of troops, and a barrage of so-called “anti-narco” strikes that have already left scores dead. The White House insists it’s about drug traffickers, but few believe that. With President Nicolás Maduro about to be officially labelled a terrorist and Trump accusing him of heading a major cartel, the scent of regime change is hard to ignore. Maduro says America is inventing a war."
Telegraph, 17/11/25

David Ainsworth ● 8d9 Comments ● 8d

“I’m the ghost of [Arab] spring past.”

"Many of the attacks on Abd el-Fattah invoke the hideous antisemitic crimes at Bondi beach on the first night of Hanukkah and at a synagogue in Manchester on Yom Kippur, implying, outrageously, that this pro-democracy, anti-sectarian, human rights activist is somehow a similar danger. And it works: many do feel vulnerable and frightened, because these are frightening times. That fear is what this campaign is all about: trying to make people afraid of Abd el-Fattah, and by extension, Muslims and migrants. Like so much in this political moment, in the UK and elsewhere, they are tightening the circle around what is considered a “real” citizen.The people who curated the posts to achieve maximum fear and shock don’t want us to know about other tweets Abd el-Fattah posted in this same period. Such as the times he confronted people who blamed Jews for the actions of the Israeli state, writing: “We stand against zionism never against a religion, and there are many brave anti zionist jews.” Or when he lifted up the voices of young Jewish descendants of the Arab and Islamic world living in Israel who, he wrote, were “demanding a just solution to the Palestinian cause that includes them”.They also skipped over the many times that Abd el-Fattah spoke out against terrorism that targets civilians, including attacks committed in the name of Islam. In one post he wrote: “To me the context never justifies killing civilians”; in another, “I’m saying killing civilians is never justified”; and one more: “It doesn’t matter at all who started it; there’s no reason in the world that justifies raising an automatic weapon against civilians in front of their homes.” He also wrote, in 2013: “Islamic terrorism is really ramping up its efforts these days, and … all the victims are unarmed civilians.”Do these posts cancel out the ones that say the exact opposite? No. But they do make it harder to turn Abd el-Fattah into the unrecognisable menacing “anti-white Islamist” figure currently flooding the internet. Further complicating that caricature are the staunchly anti-sectarian, egalitarian actions he took as a human rights advocate, in the real, non-online world.For instance, in October 2011, the Egyptian military violently attacked a peaceful protest of the Coptic Christian minority, killing 28 people and injuring hundreds more. To cover up those crimes, state media tried to foment a religious war, and “turned neighbours against each other, Muslims against Christians and transformed the hospital into a sectarian site under siege,” as the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy reported.Abd el-Fattah, who is Muslim, stood with his Christian comrades, spending the night rushing from morgue to hospital, desperately trying to make sure that evidence of the military’s crimes was not buried with the bodies of the fallen. He comforted families, and argued with clerics. “I smell of morgues, dead bodies and coffins, I smell of dust, sweat and tears,” he wrote the next day. “I don’t know if I can wash it all away.” For these acts of solidarity, he was thrown in jail, not for the first time, or the last.""In 2013, he was imprisoned for allegedly organising a peaceful demonstration (earning him a five-year sentence), then for sharing a Facebook post about the torture of another prisoner (another six years for “fake news”). Everyone knew that Abd el-Fattah’s real crime was always the same: being the most prominent reminder of the dream of a non-sectarian, decolonial, democratic Egypt. As he once tweeted: “I’m the ghost of spring past.”Keir Starmer appears surprised by the attack, and embarrassed that he and his staff failed to go through every single one of Abd el-Fattah’s social media posts before advocating for his release from unjust imprisonment and welcoming him to the UK. The prime minister said the government was “taking steps to review the information failures in this case”.That will prove to be a very big task. Back in the day, Alaa Abd el-Fattah was what is known as extremely online. He posted 280,000 times on Twitter alone. When his colleagues set out to compile the anthology of his writing, they calculated that his social media posts could have filled one hundred books, each of them 300 pages long.Or maybe the government could skip the retroactive surveillance and judge Alaa Abd el-Fattah neither by his best tweets nor his worst ones. Rather, he can be judged by the dignity and steadfastness with which he has fought for freedom – both the Egyptian people’s and his own. Maybe they could even trust that they did the right thing in the first place.Alaa is not a saint. He is, however, a hero of a stolen revolution, and a potent symbol of hope for millions still living under brutal dictatorship. His freedom is a hard-won victory for justice, at a time when those are few and far between. He deserves to enjoy it in peace."(Naomi Klein, Gdn.)https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/dec/31/alaa-abd-el-fattah-tweets-british-right-citizenshipSomebody has used some powerful computers for that search. Probably some disinterested friend of MI5. Waited for the right moment for their helpful deed.Perhaps now Starmer, scurrying around in a scared tizz, knows how it feels.

David Ainsworth ● 11d5 Comments ● 9d

Tories 2025 disavow Tories 2021, including themselves. Prefer to heap blame on Starmer

Totally predictably Alaa Abd el-Fattah has come up on the Forum. So I asked AI:-Who gave UK citizenship to Alaa Abd el-Fattah?"Alaa Abd el-Fattah was granted British citizenship in December 2021 while the Conservative Party was in government under Prime Minister Boris Johnson. His citizenship was processed through his mother, Laila Soueif, a London-born mathematics professor. Key details regarding the grant of his citizenship include: Legal Basis: He acquired citizenship through a 2021 change in immigration law that allows mothers to transmit British citizenship to their children born abroad.Home Secretary: Priti Patel served as the Home Secretary at the time the citizenship was granted.Immigration Minister: Chris Philp was the Immigration Minister when the application was approved.Diplomatic Context: The citizenship was sought by his family as a "get out of jail card" to increase diplomatic pressure on Egypt to release him from prison.Following his arrival in the UK in late 2025, several of the officials who initially supported his case—including Chris Philp and other Conservative MPs—have called for his citizenship to be revoked due to the emergence of past social media posts they labeled as "abhorrent"."Also AI:-"Source of "Islamist" Label: In late December 2025, some British media outlets and political figures (such as Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch and MP Robert Jenrick) used the term "alleged Islamist extremist" to describe him. These labels were primarily based on unearthed historical social media posts from 2010–2012 that contained violent rhetoric against Zionists and the police, rather than an adherence to Islamist ideology."Poor Starmer.

David Ainsworth ● 13d68 Comments ● 9d